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Showing posts from January, 2018

The Winter Blues and SAD

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For more information on SAD: https://www.mayoclinic.org/diseases-conditions/seasonal-affective-disorder/symptoms-causes/syc-20364651

Going skiing this weekend?

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NowCasting

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You can also NowCast lightning and probability of lightning!

TV Weather Graphic

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This image is difficult to absorb in the 8-second lifespan of a TV graphic. Here's how a depiction of current temperatures could be improved... - change the map projection to remove the curved earth - zoom the map domain - use contours rather than points - reduce the number of cities - reduce the size of the placeholders - make the placeholders 50% transparent (or more)

Can this be done better?

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How about less detail and larger font?

Blob Routine RIP!

At the Pacific Weather Centre in the late 80's, the Satellite Meteorologist briefed the oncoming shift with - among other fields - a 48-hour Relative Humidity animation. Model resolution in the 80's was coarse, and a 5-second movie of low-resolution amorphous green blobs shape-shifting across the Pacific was not enlightening beyond "Gee there's some moisture out there!" Well, it is the Pacific Ocean after all! The RH animation was soon known as the Blob-routine! and no one could pronounce it without chuckling. Thankfully, that part of the briefing was binned. Today, when weathercasters show precipitation animations I can't help but think Blob-routine! (chuckle). So, how to make this better? Animations of precipitation over time are very hard for a lay audience to comprehend, never mind in the 8 seconds-maximum allotted time for a news graphic. Why not show the total precipitation forecast over a period of interest? e.g. 12, 24 or 48 hours.

Whistler Heli-Decision-Making Dilemna

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Hey guys…interesting decision to be made yesterday by Whistler Heli-Skiing. 60+ customers jacked about deep Kootenays-style powder on a day where a 500mb shortwave trough (SW) was forecast to pass overhead of the Whistler area sometime around mid-day. There was high confidence that skies would clear but the critical question: exactly when? WH needs a four-hour window ending 90 minutes prior to sunset. In late January, the hard close of that window is about 3:30pm. As it turned out, WH bailed when flurries got REALLY HEAVY at about 11am. Skies did not go SCT-BKN until about 2pm so that was a very good call. (I spoke to PSPC Supervisor Chris Gibbons at 11amish and he suggested mid-afternoon) Here’s the question: Could that decision be made with confidence earlier? Say at 6:30am or perhaps by 8am? Have a look at this video: Do you think the forecast position/timing of the SW suggested more of a mid-afternoon clearing vs a mid-day clearing? Is the negative tilt of the SW a clue to the timi...

Quality Control in Today's Weather Office

Broadcast Meteorologists Code of Ethics

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Purpose A meteorologist’s primary goal is to help people make informed decisions using weather knowledge. Broadcast Meteorologists are an integral part of the media who dispense meteorological expertise. By presenting or linking audiences to reliable information, they play an important role in public safety and the protection of property. Their most important asset is public respect, which is earned and maintained by adhering to the highest standards of service and integrity. Given their high profile, the credibility of meteorology partly depends upon Broadcast Meteorologists. There is now an unlimited supply of weather information, phoney news and pretend-experts competing for attention in every market via every medium. Connecting the public with expertise is more challenging and more important than ever. Representing a community of applied scientists entails responsibility and ethical challenges which a new or inexperienced Broadcast Meteorologist may not recognize. The purpose of ...

The Cold, Dry and Bitter Truth about Seasonal Forecasts

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“ Some suffer from an acute expert problem, producing cosmetic but fake knowledge, particularly in narrative disciplines…”  ~ Nassim Taleb, The Black Swan. Periodic headlines scream ‘Environment Canada Blows Winter Forecast’ . The next day ‘Environment Canada Forecasts Warm Spring Ahead...’ The following day it’s ‘Groundhog Prophecies Mixed on spring’s Arrival’ . The media are stuck in a loop, rushing headlong to create the seasonal weather story every three months, overselling it as Weather You Should Fear Today! In the rapid-fire nothing-is-too-inconsequential-to-be-made-consequential twitter-verse, the next weather horror is never far away. Once established, the hair-brained scare is impossible to unseat. In 2010, it was ‘The Worst Winter in 50 Years’. In 2011, it was ‘the Coldest Winter in 20 Years’. The oversell nicely sets up the inevitable end-of-season follow-up story about the ‘blowing’ of it. It’s really much ado about nothing and enough to make a meteorologist moan. In...