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Cold snap Another bout of precipitation is forecast for the south coast Friday and Saturday. Then things turn cold. Over the past week a broad ridge has established itself over the eastern Pacific. Meanwhile a deep arctic vortex has been anchored over the Hudson Bay area, setting up a northwesterly flow in the upper levels across BC.  The above image is a time-longitude chart from 1 December to 12 February of this year. The field plotted is the 300 hPa height averaged from 46-53N and the longitudinal band covers east Asia to central Canada. Notice the very strong ridge/trough dipole highlighted for the last week. One can see the position of the ridge retrogressed (as forecast last week) to lie over the eastern Pacific. These charts offer a good picture of the past and present state of the atmosphere but as a prognostic tool it needs to be viewed in conjunction with numerical weather prediction models. A disturbance brewing over the Gulf of Alaska has managed to disturb the ridge. T...

Cold snap Another bout of precipitation is forecast for the south coast Friday and Saturday. Then things turn cold. Over the past week a broad ridge has established itself over the eastern Pacific. Meanwhile a deep arctic vortex has been anchored over the Hudson Bay area, setting up a northwesterly flow in the upper levels across BC. A disturbance brewing over the Gulf of Alaska has managed to disturb the ridge. This system will make its way across the south coast Saturday and head into Washington Sunday. In its wake the ridge will rebound with more authority and create a cold northerly flow over the province. There is some uncertainty with regard to how long we feel the effects of the pacific system. Forecast guidance suggests that it will intensify as it carves out a path across southern BC. Under these scenarios, disturbances tend to hang around just a little longer than expected. In any event, the end of the weekend will see dramatically colder conditions pervade BC. ...

5-Minute Weather Forecasting Series Wind Temperature Snowfall Part 1 Snowfall Part 2

A change is gonna come.... This past week has seen more than enough overcast skies and rain across the south coast. A change in the weather pattern over the Eastern Pacific is going to herald some drier weather for us. But don’t get your hopes up too much! This is still winter and this is still Vancouver and the weather is....changeable. For all of December and much of January the large scale pattern has been such that the south coast has been exposed to a moist southwesterly upper flow. What we see happening in the short term is the very broad scale ridge retrogressing. In other words, edging westward. With the ridge a little further west, that means the upper flow will be more from the northwest. Somewhat drier, somewhat cooler. The weather models have been fairly consistent in indicating a drier period of 3 to 4 days starting on Saturday. However, the latest model runs show a weak impulse carving a path over the south coast Sunday evening bringing some moisture before the ...